Friday May 26, 2023
China is bracing for a potential new wave of Covid-19 infections, with projections suggesting the number of cases could reach as many as 65 million per week by the end of June. The prediction is alarming for a country that only a few months ago introduced some of the strictest Covid control measures in the world. However, the response to the latest variant, known as XBB or omicron, has been relatively muted by the Chinese government and public.
About six months ago, China dismantled the vast infrastructure it had in place to fight the virus. This infrastructure included strict lockdowns, extensive testing, mandatory quarantines and strict mask requirements. However, the current increase in cases, driven by the omicron variant, has elicited a muted response from both the government and the public.
Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory disease specialist, revealed data at a medical conference in Guangzhou that revealed the wave of infections that began in late April was expected. Its modeling suggested China could see up to 40 million infections a week, peaking at 65 million at the end of June. To put that into perspective, the United States was reporting more than 5 million cases a week at its peak in January. However, China recently stopped providing weekly case updates, making it difficult to know the true extent of the current outbreak.
As the United States engages in discussions with allies and partners about China's second wave of Covid, the State Department has not confirmed whether travel restrictions are being considered. The emphasis remains on monitoring the situation in coordination with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before updating the travel guidelines. The US government emphasizes the importance of working with China on global health issues and maintaining open lines of communication.
In the previous omicron wave in December and January, a different variant of the virus wreaked havoc in China, infecting millions and overwhelming hospitals and crematoria. However, since then, immunity can weaken, increasing the risk of reinfection. Zhong mentioned that the government has preliminarily approved two vaccines targeting XBB subvariants, and more approvals could follow soon.
China's muted response can be attributed to its efforts to revive the economy and appease foreign businesses, including those from the United States. The return of strict restrictions could have a negative impact on businesses, so stability and clarity are sought to facilitate planning.
The public's perception of the current wave is also affected by the change in government messaging. The media is less interested in fear among the population, there are no alarm videos to warn people and no strict measures like lockdowns. As a result, some individuals reported experiencing milder symptoms this time around. But there are also concerns about whether the initial tough measures were necessary given the current situation.
The landscape has changed significantly since the early days of the pandemic, and China is facing new challenges with the omicron variant. The country is navigating a delicate balance between managing the spread of the virus and promoting economic stability while addressing public sentiment and ensuring clarity of communication.
