Sunday May 28, 2023
Turkey is gearing up for a landmark second-round presidential election pitting the country's longtime leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, against opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Heading into the first round of voting indicated a tight race, with Erdogan under unprecedented pressure after two decades in power. However, Erdogan defied expectations and narrowly missed out on victory.
The election comes nearly four months after the February 6 earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and displaced more than 5.9 million people in southern Turkey and northern Syria. It also coincides with a severe economic crisis and fears of democratic erosion under Erdogan's rule, analysts point out.
Here's an overview of the second round of voting and its key aspects:
How are the elections in Turkey?
Elections are held in Turkey every five years. Presidential candidates can be nominated by parties that exceeded the threshold of 5% of voters in the last parliamentary elections, or those that collected at least 100,000 signatures in support of their nomination. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a second round is held between the two candidates with the highest number of votes.
The first round of voting on May 14 saw almost 90% participation, according to the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK). However, none of the candidates won an absolute majority, leading to a second round between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan won 49.52% of the vote in the first round, giving him a five-point lead over Kilicdaroglu. In a parallel parliamentary vote, Erdogan's bloc secured a comfortable majority.
The runoff is scheduled for Sunday, with polls opening at 8:00 a.m. local time (1:00 a.m. ET) and closing at 5:00 p.m. The results are expected to be announced after 21:00 local time.
Who are the contestants?
The two candidates participating in the second round are Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan, the longest-serving Turkish leader since the creation of the modern Turkish Republic, has been in power for two decades, first as prime minister and then as president. Over the years, Erdogan consolidated power, leading to an $800 billion decline in Turkey's economy due to unorthodox fiscal policies.
A lawmaker representing the CHP (Republican People's Party) since 2002, Kilicdaroglu became the party's seventh chairman in 2010. Kilicdaroglu represents the party created by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey, in stark contrast to Erdogan's Islamist-rooted party and its conservative base. Despite his secular leanings, Kilicdaroglu and his alliance are committed to representing all factions of Turkish society.
Sinan Ogan, the right-wing Alliance of Ancestors candidate who won 5.17% of the vote in the first round, endorsed Erdogan in the second round and called on his voters to support him. Ogan's support was conditional on a tough policy on refugees and certain Kurdish groups perceived as terrorists.
What are the international implications?
With one of the world's largest economies and a population of 85 million, Turkey occupies a strategic position in an increasingly polarized world order. As a member of NATO and possessing the alliance's second-largest military, Turkey has strengthened its ties with Russia in recent years, raising concerns in the West. Erdogan's growing friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn attention, especially at the time of Russia's actions in Ukraine.
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Erdogan highlighted Turkey's special and growing relationship with Russia. He stated that Turkey is not bound by Western sanctions against Russia and that the two countries need each other in various areas. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, expressed a desire to recalibrate Turkey's relationship with Russia to be more "state-driven" rather than personality-driven.
The outcome of the election could have implications for Turkey's foreign policy. While some figures close to the opposition hint at a potential shift towards the West if he wins, experts believe the main foreign policy issues are likely to remain unchanged. Despite the disagreements, Turkey under Erdogan has been helpful to its Western allies, brokering important deals and supporting countries like Ukraine.
What are the main concerns of voters?
The state of the economy and the aftermath of a devastating earthquake are the main concerns of voters. Even before the February disaster, Turkey was struggling with rising prices and a currency crisis that resulted in high inflation. This greatly affected the purchasing power of the public and contributed to the erosion of Erdogan's popularity.
Voters also consider candidates' ability to handle the effects of earthquakes and protect the country from future disasters. Erdogan's drift away from democracy is another significant voter concern, and the opposition has campaigned to reverse this trend.
Who is likely to win?
Despite strong opposition, Erdogan's prospects appear brighter than previously predicted. It enjoys significant support from the religious sector, which has not been significantly affected by the struggling economy or the government's initial response to the earthquake. Erdogan's critics say he has consolidated his support base by making baseless accusations against the opposition, notably accusing Kilicdaroglu of collusion with Kurdish terrorist groups.
Although Erdogan's message resonated less in big cities and wealthy regions, he gained considerable support in poorer parts of the country, especially in the central regions and on the Black Sea coast. Critics also point out that Erdogan's influence over Turkish media has amplified his message.
While the runoff marks Turkey's first-ever presidential runoff, with Erdogan's ruling party losing major cities in the 2019 mayoral election, the outcome remains uncertain. If Erdogan secures a landslide victory, it will be seen as a vindication of his economic policies, lack of rule of law and reduced social autonomy.
In short, Turkey is gearing up for a subsequent presidential runoff between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. The election follows significant challenges, including an earthquake, economic crisis and fears of democratic erosion. The outcome could have international ramifications given Turkey's strategic location. Voters' main concerns revolve around the economy, disaster management and democratic values. While Erdogan has significant support, the final outcome remains uncertain with potential implications for Turkey's future.
