Most sultry year on record so far is 2016 yet 2023 is supposed to outperform it
Thursday, November 09, 2023
European Union (EU) scientists revealed on Wednesday that 2023 will be the world's hottest year in 125,000 years, after last month's figures showed it was the warmest October by a huge margin.
According to EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) deputy director Samantha Burgess, last month exceeded the previous highest average temperature for October 2019 by 0.4°C, describing the temperature anomaly as "very extreme".
The C3S statement suggests that this anomaly made 2023 as a whole "virtually certain" to be the warmest year on record.
The heat wave is a result of fossil fuel emissions and the El Nino climate pattern, which warms the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Although 2016 is the warmest year on record, 2023 is expected to surpass it.
Because the Copernicus data set goes back to 1940, EU scientists were able to match their data with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and found that it was the warmest year in 125,000 years, Burgess said.
Longer-term data from the United Nations (UN) IPCC Climate Science Panel includes data from sources such as ice cores, tree rings and coral deposits, Deccan Herald reported.
Meanwhile, climate change is fueling ever more destructive extremes.
In 2023, this includes flooding that killed thousands in Libya, severe heat waves in South America and Canada's worst wildfire season on record.
Globally, the average surface air temperature in October was 15.3 °C (59.5 °F), 1.7 °C warmer than the average for October during 1850–1900, which Copernicus defines as the pre-industrial period.
The only other month to break the temperature record by such a wide margin was September 2023.
“September really surprised us,” Burgess said. "So after last month it's hard to tell if we're in a new climate state. But now the records keep breaking and I'm less surprised than a month ago."
El Nino effect
The World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday that the ongoing El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to last until at least April 2024, is raising fears of further destruction from the heat, including in Australia, which is preparing for a severe fire season. hot and dry conditions.
"Most El Nino years are now record breakers because additional global El Nino warmth contributes to a sustained increase in human-caused warming," said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.
Mann's findings come three weeks before the Conference of the Parties (COP28), the United Nations' climate meeting in Dubai, where nearly 200 countries will discuss stronger action against climate change.
The main focus will be on whether governments agree to phase out the burning of carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels.
The UN and researchers predict that global fossil fuel production will double by 2030 due to fossil fuel producers' current plans to extract coal, oil and gas.
Despite countries setting ambitious emission reduction targets, global CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2022, underscoring the need for urgent action.
"We must not allow the devastating floods, bushfires, storms and heatwaves we have seen this year to become the new normal," said Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds.
"By rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, we can halve the rate of warming," he added.
