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Friday, November 3, 2023

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If Israel ousts Hamas, what plans do US, West have for post-war Palestine?

Conversations include strategic endeavors at different levels, including Washington, the UN, and Center East

Friday, November 03, 2023

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As Israeli forces intensify their assault on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, discussions are emerging about possible fallout scenarios should Hamas be removed from power.


These discussions involve diplomatic efforts at various levels, including Washington, the United Nations and the Middle East region.


Some of the proposed options include the deployment of a multinational force to oversee post-conflict Gaza, the establishment of a Palestinian-led interim administration that excludes members of Hamas, the involvement of neighboring Arab states in providing temporary security and governance, and even consideration of temporary UN oversight of the territory.


These negotiations are still in the early, informal stages.


One of the critical questions at the forefront of these discussions is whether Israel can successfully dismantle Hamas as it has promised.


Additionally, there is the question of whether the United States, its Western allies, and Arab governments would commit military personnel to act as a buffer between Israel and the Palestinians.


This would represent a significant departure from previous reluctance to engage in such a role.


The situation on the ground is dire, with health authorities in Gaza reporting high death tolls, hospitals overburdened and thousands of Palestinians displaced.

The Gaza Strip, home to 2.3 million people, faces serious humanitarian challenges.


The ability of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take control of Gaza in a post-Hamas period is uncertain.


While the US Secretary of State has mentioned the possibility of a "revitalized" Palestinian Authority, the PA itself has faced problems related to corruption and mismanagement. Due to the complexity of the situation, planning for the "day after" is difficult.


According to Reuters, any entity seeking to assert authority in post-war Gaza would also have to contend with a perception among Palestinians that it is beholden to Israel. His offensive against Hamas was launched in retaliation for a devastating rampage on October 7 in which militants killed 1,400 people in southern Israel and took more than 200 hostages.


Even if Hamas's leadership were toppled, it would be nearly impossible to eradicate pro-militant sentiment from Gazans, raising the threat of new attacks, including suicide bombings, against whoever takes power.


"If the Israelis manage to crush Hamas, I think it will be extremely difficult to get a governing structure in there that is legitimate and functional," said Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator.


"Working out 'day after' feels fantastic right now," Miller said.


The discussions have intensified as Israel expands its air, ground and naval assault on Gaza, but have also been driven by what US officials see as Israel's failure so far to articulate an ultimate goal.


Massive rebuild help

We are increasingly aware that massive amounts of international aid will be needed to rebuild Gaza, and that such an infusion would be nearly impossible to secure from Western governments where Hamas is still in command.


Moments before leaving for a trip to Israel and Jordan on Thursday, Blinken said his meetings in the region would not only deal with "concrete steps" to minimize harm to civilians in Gaza, but also address issues of post-war planning.


"We're focused on the day. We've got to focus on the day after as well," Blinken told reporters. According to him, the basis of lasting peace is the path to possible Palestinian statehood, a goal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long resisted.


Lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, Haiti

US officials have said privately that they and their Israeli counterparts have discussed the lessons of Washington's missteps in the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and its lack of preparation for what followed.


Among the options discussed by US officials is the creation of a multinational force to maintain order. Its composition could include some mix of European or Arab countries, although no government has openly expressed interest in joining such a force.


US President Joe Biden, who ends Washington's two-year military presence in Afghanistan in 2021, is unlikely to want to get involved in direct military action in a new foreign conflict as he seeks re-election in 2024.


Some political analysts have also floated the idea of ​​deploying a UN-backed force to Gaza – either a formal UN peacekeeping force, as is the case on the Israel-Lebanon border, or a multinational force with UN approval.


But diplomats claim that there have been no discussions at the UN about such a move, which would require an agreement among the 15 members of the UN Security Council.


Such missions often face major obstacles. In October 2022, Haiti asked for international help to fight violent gangs. A year later, the UN Security Council approved a foreign security mission, delayed by a struggle to find a country willing to lead it. Kenya has acceded, but Haiti is still waiting for the mission to arrive.


Complicating all this, Israel would likely oppose any UN security role, especially after Israeli officials criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for saying the October 7 Hamas attack "did not happen in a vacuum."


Israel expects a long war, but says it has no interest in reoccupying Gaza.


Regional umbrella

Outside experts, some occasionally known to have the ear of American politicians, weigh in on what a post-war Gaza might look like.


If Hamas can be stripped of its "veto power" and Gaza demilitarized, "it could pave the way for the establishment of an interim administration with a Palestinian-led technocratic government operating under some kind of international and/or regional umbrella," he said. Dennis Ross, former Middle East negotiator and White House adviser.


The details, he said, would require a comprehensive US-led engagement with the Palestinian Authority and other major players interested in stabilizing the Middle East.


However, for this to work, Israel must limit the time frame for its military presence in Gaza, otherwise any new governing body could lack legitimacy in the eyes of its people, Ross said.

The paper, authored by Ross and two of his colleagues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested that once Israel withdraws, security in Gaza will be provided by "a consortium of five Arab states that have entered into peace agreements with Israel—Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates , Bahrain and Morocco."


However, there is some skepticism that such an arrangement would be feasible.


"Arab states will not put boots on the ground to kill Palestinians," said former negotiator Miller, now of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

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