News Date: September 20, 2026

European Intelligence Chiefs Warn Russia Could Test NATO in Coming Months

European intelligence officials have raised concerns that Russia could attempt to test NATO's response in the coming months, amid growing tensions between Moscow and European countries.

The warnings come as European governments assess the possibility of Russian drone, missile, cyber and other hybrid activities affecting NATO members. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently said intelligence assessments indicated that Russia could potentially target NATO territory in the coming months.

European Intelligence Agencies Assess the Threat

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's Security Information Service, said a limited Russian operation against NATO territory was a possible scenario. He also mentioned the possibility of provocations or influence operations.

However, intelligence assessments differ across European countries. Latvia's security chief Normunds Mežviets said there were signs that Moscow was preparing for potentially more decisive action in Europe, but he stressed that there were no indications of an imminent attack.

This distinction is important because intelligence warnings about possible future scenarios do not necessarily mean that an attack has been decided or is about to happen.

Poland Raises Concern About Drones and Missiles

Poland has been among the countries publicly warning about the possibility of Russian activity affecting NATO territory.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence from NATO, Ukraine and the United States suggested that Russia could potentially use drones or missiles in incidents involving NATO territory. He warned that such incidents could be designed to create uncertainty about the alliance's collective response.

Poland has also been strengthening its attention to security along its eastern border as the war in Ukraine continues.

Why NATO's Article 5 Matters

A major part of the discussion concerns NATO's Article 5, which establishes the alliance's collective-defence principle.

A serious attack on one NATO member can trigger consultations and collective action by the alliance. Because of this, European officials are concerned that even a limited incident could create a difficult political and security situation for NATO countries.

Earlier U.S. intelligence assessments also considered scenarios ranging from cyber and hybrid operations to a limited military incursion intended to test NATO's response.

Baltic Countries Take a More Cautious View

Countries bordering Russia, including the Baltic states, have been particularly focused on the possibility of Russian hybrid activity.

At the same time, officials in the region have cautioned against assuming that a large-scale attack is imminent. Latvia's intelligence chief specifically said there were no current indications of an imminent attack, while acknowledging that Russia appeared to be preparing for potentially more decisive action in Europe.

The differing assessments show why intelligence warnings need to be separated from confirmed military developments.

Hybrid Threats Remain a Major Concern

European governments are also paying attention to activities that fall below the level of conventional warfare.

These include cyber operations, sabotage, disinformation and other forms of pressure against European infrastructure and institutions. European officials have increasingly described such activity as part of a broader security challenge connected to Russia.

The concern is that a limited incident could create uncertainty over whether it was accidental, deliberate or part of a wider campaign.

What Happens Next?

European governments are expected to continue monitoring Russian military and intelligence activity while strengthening their defensive preparations.

For now, officials have presented different assessments of the timing and nature of any possible Russian action. Some intelligence officials warn that a test of NATO could occur within months, while others say there is no evidence of an imminent conventional attack.

The situation therefore remains closely watched as NATO members assess their security arrangements and the continuing war in Ukraine.

Conclusion

European intelligence warnings have increased attention on the possibility that Russia could test NATO in the coming months. However, the warnings describe potential scenarios rather than a confirmed decision by Moscow to attack a NATO country.

With European governments monitoring both conventional and hybrid threats, the focus remains on maintaining NATO's collective defence while avoiding unnecessary escalation.