Indian Foreign Secretary's visit to Myanmar: How will India meet China's challenge in Myanmar?

BBC News 

December 23, 2021

Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Sharangala is on a visit to Myanmar. This is the first visit by a high-level Indian delegation to Myanmar since Myanmar's military overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February this year.

During his two-day visit, Foreign Secretary Sharangala will meet the ruling State Administrative Council, political parties and members of civil society, the Indian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The statement said that humanitarian aid, security, Indo-Myanmar border and the political situation there would also be discussed with Myanmar.

The border between India and Myanmar is about 1,640 km long. This border passes through states like Manipur and Nagaland. India is concerned about extremist activities in these states in recent times.

From a strategic point of view, Myanmar is very important for India. It is the only country which is a neighbor of India as well as part of the country's 'Act East Policy'.

In the same month, Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to four years in prison for inciting anti-government protests in Myanmar, which was later reduced to two years.

Expressing concern over this, India had said at the time that as a neighbor, India was in favor of democracy in Myanmar and was concerned about the latest decisions.

In 1854, a representative of the Burmese king came to Calcutta to meet the officials of the East India Company.This is a picture published in a London newspaper.

History of India-Myanmar relations

India-Myanmar relations are centuries old and Buddhism has a strong ties. The deep impressions of Buddhism on the society and culture are clearly visible. Diplomatic relations between the two countries were established in 1948 after the end of British rule.

Myanmar (then Burma) was a province of British India during the British rule. Due to which the relationship between the two was very strong.

But in March 1962, the military overthrew the democratic government. After that, relations between the two countries began to deteriorate. For the next 49 years, the military remained in power, ignoring the voices for democracy.

During this time only the Prime Minister of India Rajiv Gandhi visited Burma in 1987. After a long struggle, the supporters of democracy won and after the 2011 general elections, democracy returned to the country.

Aung San Suu Kyi's party, a prominent figure in the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar and a student of Lady Shri Ram College in Delhi, came to power in these elections.

The army is cracking down on protests.

Try to balance

India's concerns aside, the attitude of Western countries towards Myanmar has changed since February 1, 2021. Since the military took power, Western nations, including the United States, have imposed severe economic sanctions on the country.

Due to the closeness that has developed between India and the United States in recent years, it is not easy to make friends with a country that has been banned by the United States. But despite possible US objections, India has reached out to Myanmar. Some experts also call it 'Tight Roop Walk'.

Despite Western sanctions, China continues to work indiscriminately with Myanmar's military administration. It is also important for India to reduce its Chinese influence in Myanmar.

My Shankar has been an officer of the Indian Foreign Service and also the Ambassador of India to the United States from 2009 to 2011.

Speaking to BBC Hindi, Meera Shankar said: "Due to Western sanctions, Myanmar has no option but China. But Myanmar is our neighbor. Our security is linked to them.

"Our southeastern connection to Asia is through Myanmar. So it is difficult for us to sever ties with Myanmar despite the sanctions. But we have to take care of the negotiations as well as the international consensus on Myanmar. It's a thin rope. "

My Shankar says the US also knows that the challenge for India is something else. "If the situation pushing Myanmar towards China is not good for India at all, then we should maintain some relations with Myanmar," she said.

It was during Aung San Suu Kyi's party that China made huge investments in Myanmar. Despite Western sanctions, China now maintains ties with Myanmar's military government.

Chinese intervention in Myanmar

China is Myanmar's largest trading partner. China accounts for the largest share of total imports. And the largest portion of exports from Myanmar goes to China.

Machinery, telecommunications, vehicles and metal products come to Myanmar from China. China imports rare items from Burma, such as bananas, rice, petroleum gas, rubber and tons.

But Myanmar has huge oil and natural gas reserves. China's energy demand is also growing due to its growing population and rapid economic growth.

In an article published on the Observer Research Foundation, Samantha Samsani says, "Myanmar's geographical location accelerates China's plans. China has built a  4.5 billion natural gas and oil pipeline from Myanmar's Rakhine state to its Yunnan province.

China will do the same in other countries. At the same time, however, the Chinese company, China National Petroleum Corporation, owns more than 50% of the company laying the pipeline in Myanmar.

Geeta Kochhar teaches at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi and has a special eye on China. Kochhar says Myanmar is rich in natural resources and China sees the possibility of further expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) there.

Geeta Kochhar told BBC Hindi that "China wants to continue its BRI campaign in all these areas. This will greatly increase its economic impact. This is also important for China. Sugar exports to the United States and other Western countries have declined, and China now needs sugar.

"The other important thing is China's energy needs. With a growing population, China's needs will increase. Not only Myanmar but also China is thinking of laying a pipeline from Iran to Pakistan. Third, China wants to be a superpower. It needs allies. Allies that support it in any situation.

Myanmar is across the bridge in the town of Moore in the Indian state of Manipur. A road will now run from the town to Thailand.

Chinese influence

Reducing China's influence in Myanmar and pursuing its own interests is a major challenge for India.

Meera Shankar says, “India had started some projects in Myanmar, including construction of roads and ports, which are still going on. There should be more such cooperation. Some Indian investors were also investing in Myanmar.

Especially in Myanmar's energy sector, but after the military came to power, they withdrew these plans because no private company wants to hate the United States."

India is part of the Kaladan project, which will connect the port of Kolkata with the port of Sittwe in Myanmar and then the port of Palichowa in the Chinese province of Sittwe.

Eventually, Palichua will be connected by road to Mizoram and northeast of India. This means that Mizoram can be connected to the Bay of Bengal through this project.

India, Myanmar and Thailand are participating in another major road project. Known as the Trilateral Highway Project, the project will run from Moore in Manipur to Mae Sut in Thailand.

In addition, Gita Kochhar believes that India should increase military cooperation with other countries to compete with China.

If military cooperation between China and Myanmar increases in the future, it will be a problem for India," he said. India should not only establish friendly relations with other countries, but also military-to-military relations with Vietnam. India should not hesitate on such issues.

In Myanmar, the military is back in power, but this time it is facing the wrath of the people. Meanwhile, despite fears of Beyonc, protesters took to the streets demanding the restoration of democracy.

Since the country was handed over to the military on February 1, 2021, more than 1,200 civilians have been killed in protests. In addition, thousands of people are imprisoned.

In this context, it would not be wrong to say that the future of India's Myanmar policy will also depend on how long the military rule lasts and how long it takes for democracy to return.